Everybody knows the World Series of Poker champion or World Poker Tour win as he outplayed the other rounders. Everyone actually knows poker is a game of skill.
Yet poker is likewise a chance game.
Which is the difference?
Short term or long term thinking is the difference between luck and skill when it comes to all forms of gambling.
Let’s assume you’re playing nine players at a table and you’ve got pocket aces. You’d want to go all-in in no-limit hold’em game and hope all the other players went all – in, too.
You are only going to win this hand 1/3 of the time. Most of the time— actually 2/3 of the time — the other players will draw out on you.
Assume you have $100 in front of you each time you do this.
With nine players at the table, on three of nine times, you’ll win $800, or $2,400.
On six of those hands, you’ll lose $100, or $600.
That’s a $1,800 gain over nine hands or an average $200 per hand.
Most poker circumstances aren’t that cut and dried, but it’s a perfect illustration of how professional play means you’re going to benefit in the long run.
But some of the time— even most of the time— somebody else will win in the short term.
It is all about anticipation in the long term.